Michael Gallup Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 136.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Michael Gallup has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 19.5% this year, which ranks him in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.53 seconds before getting pressured (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a big 17.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: least in football.
Michael Gallup has been among the most hard-handed receivers in football, catching a measly 58.0% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 8th percentile among WRs
The Houston Texans pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) versus wideouts this year (62.7%).

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