Michael Gallup Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-120/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.53 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 44.5 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: most in the NFL.
Michael Gallup's 45.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year reflects a a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching skills over last year's 33.0 rate.

Favors Under

Michael Gallup has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (40.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
Michael Gallup's 32.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 40.8.
The 49ers pass defense has shown good efficiency versus wideouts this year, allowing 7.02 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in football.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.

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