Michael Gallup Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys offense to tilt 6.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in football (63.4% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Cowboys.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

This week's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Cowboys, who are a huge favorite by 13.5 points.
Michael Gallup has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Michael Gallup has been utilized much less in his offense's pass game.

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