Michael Gallup Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+247/-399).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -364 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -399.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.06 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys O-line has given their quarterback 2.53 seconds before getting pressured (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have gone no-huddle on 12.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.
Michael Gallup has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (58.0 per game) than he did last season (89.0 per game).
Michael Gallup's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 60.3% to 50.0%.
The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 3rd-least TDs through the air in the NFL to WRs: 0.43 per game this year.

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