Michael Carter Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · Tennessee Titans

Touchdowns

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Carter Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+682/-870).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -870.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Titans, who are massive -12.5-point underdogs.
While Michael Carter has accounted for 15.4% of his team's red zone run game usage in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be a much smaller piece of Tennessee's rushing attack near the end zone in this contest at 0.9%.
Michael Carter has compiled a whopping 6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among RBs. (This might not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Michael Carter ranks in the 78th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a massive 14.1 mark since the start of last season.
In regards to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Tennessee Titans profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The model projects the Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 57.1% pass rate.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Titans are predicted by the projections to call only 62.5 total plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Titans have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.6 plays per game.
Michael Carter has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in football when it comes to RBs, completing just 77.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 16th percentile.
The receiving TD line reads "0" on the back of Michael Carter's trading card since the start of last season.