Michael Carter Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Michael Carter has been given 42.1% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
Michael Carter's rushing effectiveness (3.83 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (17th percentile among RBs).
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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