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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Michael Carter Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-208/+160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +175 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The New York Jets will be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 130.6 total plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
  • As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's group of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 58.8% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Jets have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.9 plays per game.
  • Michael Carter's 27.8% Route Participation Rate this year indicates a material reduction in his passing offense volume over last year's 42.0% figure.
  • The New York O-line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • Michael Carter's 1.3 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 2.6 figure.

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