Michael Carter Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-208/+160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +175 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 130.6 total plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's group of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 58.8% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Jets have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.9 plays per game.
Michael Carter's 27.8% Route Participation Rate this year indicates a material reduction in his passing offense volume over last year's 42.0% figure.
The New York O-line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all air attack statistics across the board.
Michael Carter's 1.3 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 2.6 figure.

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