Michael Carter Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling with backup QB Zach Wilson.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
This year, the feeble Eagles pass defense has conceded a massive 94.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the highest rate in football.

Favors Under

The Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 5th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New York Jets.
Michael Carter's 30.1% Route% this year marks a a remarkable decline in his passing game usage over last year's 42.0% mark.
Michael Carter's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 87.1% to 82.9%.
The Eagles linebackers project as the 10th-best group of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

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