Michael Carter Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to earn 4.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Michael Carter has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 10.9% this year, which ranks him in the 84th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a measly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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