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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets

Michael Carter Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+175/-240).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -240.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

The Jets rank as the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 67.9% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to earn 3.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among running backs.

Michael Carter has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 11.1% this year, which ranks in the 83rd percentile among RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the NFL.

The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (76.2%) to RBs since the start of last season (76.2%).

The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.

The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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