Michael Carter Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Carter Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+137/-188).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +139 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to accrue 3.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
Michael Carter has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 10.9% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Michael Carter has been among the best RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 2.5 receptions per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
Michael Carter has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football among RBs, hauling in a measly 70.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 10th percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.