Michael Carter Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 130.6 total plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
When talking about air yards, Michael Carter grades out in the towering 91st percentile among running backs this year, totaling a colossal 3.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 58.8% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Jets have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.9 plays per game.
Michael Carter's 27.8% Route Participation Rate this year indicates a material reduction in his passing offense volume over last year's 42.0% figure.
The New York O-line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all air attack statistics across the board.
Michael Carter's 6.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season shows a noteworthy decline in his pass-catching ability over last season's 18.0 figure.