Michael Carter Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+107/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jets rank as the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 67.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to earn 3.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Michael Carter has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 11.1% this year, which ranks in the 83rd percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the NFL.
Michael Carter has notched a meager 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 21st percentile among running backs.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Michael Carter's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging a measly 4.93 yards-per-target vs a 6.26 figure last year.
Michael Carter's ability to generate extra yardage has diminished this season, notching a mere 7.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 8.78 mark last season.

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