Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-101/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Melvin Gordon has been given 45.8% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Melvin Gordon has picked up 56.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (87th percentile).

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 57.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.0 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has produced the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, giving up just 3.96 yards-per-carry.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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