Melvin Gordon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Melvin Gordon has earned 44.8% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in run blocking.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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