Melvin Gordon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Melvin Gordon has been given 45.3% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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