Mecole Hardman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Mecole Hardman

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Mecole Hardman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Mecole Hardman's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.8% to 65.3%.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.