Mecole Hardman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Mecole Hardman

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Mecole Hardman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-173).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -173.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 6th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Mecole Hardman's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.8% to 59.5%.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62%) to WRs since the start of last season (62.0%).
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.