Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Mecole Hardman

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 12, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Mecole Hardman has been among the most reliable receivers in football, catching an impressive 75.8% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 83rd percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.