Mecole Hardman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Mecole Hardman

NFL · Player Props

Mecole Hardman

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Mecole Hardman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+306/-550).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -492 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -550.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Mecole Hardman ranks in the 83rd percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.33 per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs have utilized some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Mecole Hardman's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.8% to 71.1%.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded the 3rd-least passing TDs in football to WRs: 0.33 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

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