Matthew Stafford Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2532/-2930).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 58.9% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 2nd-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Rams this year (a whopping 64.6 per game on average).
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.
The predictive model expects Matthew Stafford to throw 36.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 6th-most among all QBs.

Favors Under

The Rams are a giant 12.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Cardinals defense this year (63.3% Adjusted Completion%).

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