Matthew Stafford Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs New York Giants · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 21, 2026 7:52 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2464/-2678).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Matthew Stafford has been one of the best touchdown passers in football since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 2.19 per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.
With an atrocious ratio of only 0.00 rushing TDs per game (2nd percentile), Matthew Stafford stands as one of the weakest rushing QBs in the league since the start of last season.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's collection of CBs has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, profiling as the worst in the league.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Rams are heavily favored in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Rams to pass on 57.0% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Los Angeles Rams have been the most run-focused team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 77.8% red zone run rate.
The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The predictive model expects Matthew Stafford to attempt 33.7 passes this week, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

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