Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-184/+152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -188 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Rams to pass on 62.6% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Rams to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.4% red zone pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Rams offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.50 seconds per play.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
In this week's contest, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projection model to wind up with the 3rd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.7.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.

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