Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 10, 2026 10:42 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+141/-147).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Rams to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
Right now, the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Rams.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Matthew Stafford to attempt 37.1 passes in this game, on balance: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.
The Bills defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script.
Matthew Stafford's throwing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 65.9% to 62.6%.