Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Rams to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 127.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
In throwing a whopping 31.9 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Matthew Stafford stands among the top QBs in football (88th percentile) by this metric.
With an impressive ratio of 2.26 per game (100th percentile), Matthew Stafford stands as one of the leading touchdown throwers in the league since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles safeties profile as the 7th-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Matthew Stafford's passing precision has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 65.9% to 59.0%.
Since the start of last season, the imposing Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up a measly 65.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 2nd-best rate in the league.
The Eagles defense has given up the fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 0.90 per game since the start of last season.