Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+104/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In this game, Matthew Stafford is projected by the projections to average the 7th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.0.
The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.
With a stellar ratio of 2.27 per game (100th percentile), Matthew Stafford stands among the top TD throwers in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

With a 40.0% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 4th-least pass-heavy team in football under these circumstances has been the Los Angeles Rams.
Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.
Since the start of last season, the tough Denver Broncos defense has yielded a puny 66.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Broncos defense has conceded a measly 1.05 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 3rd-best rate in the league.