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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+112/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -141.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 66.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.0% red zone pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 40.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in the league against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year (68.2%).
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
  • The Los Angeles Rams have incorporated play action on just 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
  • The Los Angeles Rams have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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