Matthew Stafford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+112/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 66.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.0% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 40.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in the league against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year (68.2%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Los Angeles Rams have incorporated play action on just 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
The Los Angeles Rams have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.