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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-210/+161).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.7 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season (63.8%).

The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the least passing TDs in the NFL: 0.71 per game since the start of last season.

The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Los Angeles Rams have used play action on just 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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