Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 10, 2026 8:37 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+396/-490).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script.
Right now, the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Rams.
Matthew Stafford's 9.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season reflects a noteable improvement in his rushing proficiency over last season's 4.0 mark.
With a fantastic total of 6.1 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (77th percentile), Matthew Stafford stands as one of the leading running quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills defensive ends profile as the worst DE corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Rams to run on 38.6% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this week's contest, Matthew Stafford is expected by the projection model to accrue the 3rd-fewest rush attempts out of all QBs with 2.0.
Matthew Stafford ranks as one of the bottom quarterbacks in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 0.12 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 11th percentile.

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