Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+113/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -156 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 127.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Matthew Stafford's rushing effectiveness (6.47 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (80th percentile among QBs).

Favors Under

At the present time, the 6th-least run-centric offense in the NFL (37.3% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Rams.
In this week's game, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projection model to earn the 3rd-fewest carries among all QBs with 2.0.
Matthew Stafford has grinded out just 5.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the lowest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (17th percentile).
With an atrocious record of 0.18 yards-after-contact (12th percentile), Matthew Stafford rates as one of the bottom rushing quarterbacks in football this year.
Since the start of last season, the deficient Philadelphia Eagles run defense has yielded a colossal 4.17 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 23rd-biggest rate in football.