Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.
Matthew Stafford's ground efficiency (6.37 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (79th percentile among QBs).
The Denver defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Rams to be the 8th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Matthew Stafford to notch 1.7 carries in this week's game, on average: the fewest among all QBs.
Matthew Stafford has averaged just 4.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in the NFL when it comes to QBs (15th percentile).
With a very bad rate of 0.62 yards-after-contact (12th percentile), Matthew Stafford stands among the worst rushing quarterbacks in football since the start of last season.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 97.0 per game) against the Broncos defense since the start of last season.