Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-107/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (5.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.8% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-most yards in the league (132 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-worst group of DEs in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 2nd-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 33.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to accrue 1.3 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in run blocking.
Matthew Stafford has picked up a mere 2.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest marks in the league among QBs (8th percentile).

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