Matthew Stafford Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Passing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 249.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 254.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 249.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Rams to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 127.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
In throwing a whopping 31.9 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Matthew Stafford stands among the top QBs in football (88th percentile) by this metric.
With an outstanding record of 244.0 adjusted passing yards per game (98th percentile), Matthew Stafford rates as one of the leading passers in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles safeties profile as the 7th-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Matthew Stafford's passing precision has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 65.9% to 59.0%.
Since the start of last season, the imposing Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up a measly 65.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 2nd-best rate in the league.
Since the start of last season, the tough Eagles defense has conceded the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing squads: a meager 7.1 yards.