Matthew Stafford Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Completions

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 9:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.0 passes in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
Since the start of last season, the weak Colts defense has been torched for a monstrous 71.9% Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams have called the 9th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in football.
The Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Matthew Stafford's passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 60.1%.

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