Matthew Stafford Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Completions

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+103/-133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ +103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 38.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Rams are an enormous 10.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.4 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Rams have incorporated play action on a mere 21.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.