Matthew Stafford Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Completions

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 9, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+107/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.7 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season (63.8%).
The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Los Angeles Rams have used play action on just 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
The Los Angeles Rams have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.