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Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

Matt Ryan TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+142/-179).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -179.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Colts rank as the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 67.1% red zone pass rate.

The Indianapolis Colts have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.

Matt Ryan has attempted 44.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 95th percentile among quarterbacks.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in football vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year (76.5%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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