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Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan TD Passes
Player Prop Week 6

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Matt Ryan TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts rank as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 65.9% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.8 plays per game.

Matt Ryan has attempted 41.2 passes per game this year, ranking in the 79th percentile among quarterbacks.

The Indianapolis Colts O-line has afforded their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 58.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 8th-least in the league.

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in the NFL versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (66.4%).

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the 10th-least TDs through the air in football: 1.00 per game this year.

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