Matt Ryan TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Matt Ryan

NFL · Player Props

Matt Ryan

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 29, 2022 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Matt Ryan TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Matt Ryan has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in football this year with an impressive 67.9% Completion%, ranking in the 85th percentile.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered the most passing TDs in the NFL: 2.10 per game this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks grade out as the worst group of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Matt Ryan to attempt 36.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in football against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (66.3%).

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