Matt Ryan Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Matt Ryan

NFL · Player Props

Matt Ryan

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Matt Ryan Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-116/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Matt Ryan to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (9.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.4% in games he has played).
The Indianapolis Colts have gone for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Matt Ryan has grinded out a mere 2.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest figures in the league among quarterbacks (15th percentile).
Matt Ryan's rushing efficiency has tailed off this year, notching just 1.33 yards-per-carry compared to a 2.57 figure last year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 3.82 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 5th-best group of LBs in the league this year with their run defense.

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