Matt Ryan Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Matt Ryan

NFL · Player Props

Matt Ryan

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Matt Ryan Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a big 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Colts rank as the 7th-most run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 40.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Matt Ryan to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (9.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.0% in games he has played).
The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-most yards in the NFL (143 per game) against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Matt Ryan to accrue 2.4 carries in this week's game, on average: the 5th-least of all QBs.
Matt Ryan has picked up just 5.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the smallest marks in the league among quarterbacks (18th percentile).
Matt Ryan's running efficiency (2.57 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (7th percentile among quarterbacks).

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