Matt Ryan Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Matt Ryan

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Passing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Matt Ryan Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 235.5 (-108/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 235.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 235.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 8th-most yards in the league (251.0 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has allowed their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts have incorporated play action on 33.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Matt Ryan to attempt 32.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 9th-least of all quarterbacks.