Matt Ryan Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Matt Ryan

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Completions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Matt Ryan Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-123/-107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -147 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season (74.2%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the 7th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
Matt Ryan's passing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 66.8% to 63.3%.