Matt Breida Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Matt Breida

NFL · Player Props

Matt Breida

RB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 21, 2023 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Matt Breida Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Matt Breida to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (40.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.6% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Giants are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Opposing teams have run for the least yards in the league (just 76 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season.

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