Matt Breida Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Matt Breida

NFL · Player Props

Matt Breida

RB · New York Giants

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Matt Breida Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a huge 13-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Giants to be the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the New York Giants offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
In this week's contest, Matt Breida is predicted by the projections to land in the 91st percentile among RBs with 4.3 targets.
Our trusted projections expect Matt Breida to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game this week (12.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The New York Giants offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Miami's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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