Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Marvin Mims Jr.

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Mims Jr.

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Mims Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-148/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a terrific 11.6 adjusted yards per target (94th percentile) this year, Marvin Mims stands as one of the top WRs in the game in football.
With an exceptional 7.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (89th percentile) this year, Marvin Mims has been as one of the top WRs in the NFL in football in picking up extra yardage.
This year, the porous Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed a staggering 174.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 9th-worst in football.
This year, the deficient Vikings pass defense has given up a colossal 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 7th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive strategy to skew 2.0% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Broncos this year (a lowly 53.7 per game on average).
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been very good this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in football.

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