Marvin Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 8, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (68.8%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (68.8%).

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Marvin Jones has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, completing just 57.0% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 8th percentile among wide receivers
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 7th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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