Marvin Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 2:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
Marvin Jones has run a route on 92.6% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 58.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (56.9%) versus wide receivers this year (56.9%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season.

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