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Marvin Jones

Marvin Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+116/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line has given their QB 2.56 seconds before getting pressured (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in the NFL.

Marvin Jones's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 53.5.

Marvin Jones's pass-catching performance diminished this season, accumulating just 2.9 yards per game vs 4.3 last season.

Marvin Jones's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.5% to 57.2%.

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

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