Marvin Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+116/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line has given their QB 2.56 seconds before getting pressured (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in the NFL.
Marvin Jones's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 53.5.
Marvin Jones's pass-catching performance diminished this season, accumulating just 2.9 yards per game vs 4.3 last season.
Marvin Jones's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.5% to 57.2%.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

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