Marvin Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line has allowed their QB 2.56 seconds before getting pressured (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Marvin Jones has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (77.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (93.4%).
Marvin Jones's receiving performance has declined this season, totaling just 2.7 yards per game vs 4.3 last season.
Marvin Jones's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 63.5% to 54.4%.